After a few successful releases last weekend brought the box office back from one of its lowest points this decade, a variety of releases in different genres this weekend should keep the momentum going. The widest release is romantic comedy "My Best Friend's Girl," starring Kate Hudson and Dane Cook and it should be able to outdraw thriller "Lakeview Terrace," which will have some competition with "Righteous Kill" entering its second weekend.
In September of 2007, Lionsgate distributed "Good Luck Chuck," an R-rated romantic comedy starring Dane Cook that brought in $13.65 million its opening weekend. "My Best Friend's Girl" is also an R-rated comedy starring Dane Cook that is being distributed by Lionsgate. With an estimated 2,604 theater opening compared to the 2,612 first weekend of "Chuck," even the release size is practically the same.
Substituting Jessica Alba for Kate Hudson, "My Best Friend's Girl" shouldn't see a drop-off and should also pull in somewhere in the $13-$14 million range. Unless "Lakeview Terrace" really catches on with the intended thriller audience, that should be enough to finish the weekend as the number one box office draw.
Even though "Lakeview Terrace" doesn't have any competition from a new release this weekend, it does still have to compete with the surprisingly strong thriller "Righteous Kill." Despite some reservations about how well "Righteous Kill" was going to do in theaters, it made a respectable $16.29 million in its opening weekend and has continued to see strong numbers during this past week.
With an estimated release of 2,464 theaters this weekend, "Lakeview Terrace" will also be at a disadvantage to "Righteous Kill," which opened at 3,152 theaters a week ago. "Lakeview Terrace" does have one advantage, however, as it should be able to attract more of the teenage demographic with its PG-13 rating. Look for "Terrace" to see a strong per theater average but ultimately slide into second place with somewhere around $13 million.
The animated MGM release "Igor" also opens this weekend at an estimated 2,339 theaters and should appeal nicely to family audiences without any other family-geared releases on the map. But with a relatively small release and a general lack of big names in the cast - Steve Buschemi and John Cleese are the biggest - the potential for "Igor" seems to be relatively limited. Still, a sizeable opening of just under $10 million and a decent per theater average should be feasible considering the power of the family market.
The other new release to hit theaters across the country is the Ricky Gervais starring comedy "Ghost Town." Since Gervais is best known for starring in the U.K. version of the television show "The Office" and also the HBO series "Extras," "Ghost Town" is only getting a release at around 1,500 venues. Though audiences may be familiar with Gervais from supporting roles in "Stardust" and "Night at the Museum," his drawing power as a leading man is still up in the air and "Ghost Town" should open outside of the top five.
With the strong decline of action releases "Bangkok Dangerous," "Death Race" and "Babylon A.D." the door is open for "The Dark Knight" to slip into the top ten for one more weekend, which would make it its 10th consecutive.
Though it appears "The Dark Knight" will come up quite a bit short of "Titanic's" $600 million domestic mark, it has still had one of the most lucrative box office runs in history and is closing in on becoming the fourth release ever to cross $1 billion worldwide. "The Dark Knight" is also expected to get an award's season re-release in a couple of months, which will push it's already massive totals even higher.
RTT Box Office Estimates For 9/19 - 9/21 (In Millions):
1) My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate): $14
2) Lakeview Terrace (Sony/Screen Gems): $13
3) Burn After Reading (Focus Features): $10.5
4) Igor (MGM): $9
5) Righteous Kill (Overture Films): $8
6) Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate): $7.5
7) The Women (Picturehouse): $6
8) Ghost Town (Paramount/Dreamworks): $5.5
9) Tropic Thunder (Paramount/Dreamworks): $2.5
10) The Dark Knight (Warner Brothers): $2.3